New NH poll: huge post-debate bounce for Hillary

http://wbztv.com/keller/local_story_1552 24247.html

A new WBZ-Franklin Pierce College Poll shows a decisive victory of Hillary Clinton in the debate on Sunday.

The poll shows 45 percent of voters scored Hillary the winner, compared with only eight percent for Obama and four percent for Edwards.

Hillary Clinton's number got a huge bounce as a result:

               June 4, 2007 March 13, 2007
Hillary Clinton 38%(32%)
Barack Obama 16%(25%)
John Edwards 13%(16%)
Al Gore 8%(10%)
Bill Richardson 8%(3%)
Dennis Kucinich 2%(2%)
Joe Biden 4%(1%)
Wesley Clark 1%(1%)
Chris Dodd 1%(*)
Mike Gravel 0% 0%

Obama suffered the most, HIllary is openning a monstrous 22 points lead over Obama. Edwards is essentially tied with Obama in this poll.

Undecided 10% 9%

Link to the poll: http://static.cbslocal.com/station/wbz/wbz/2007/june/debateresults.pdf

Display:


Re: New NH poll: (none / 0)

She injected a healthy dose of humor into it, which made all the other guys look dry in comparison.  Add the surefootedness with which she discusses topics, and the areas "competence," "experience" and also "charisma" come more and more into focus.  


by georgep on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 01:47:30 PM EST

Re: New NH poll: (none / 0)

George I'd feel a lot better about her candidacy if Mark Penn wasn't a union buster.


by adamterando on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 01:59:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

or if James Carville (none / 0)

wasn't a character witness for scooter libby.


McCain - a serial Opportunist, from marriage to policy positions
by TarHeel on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 02:30:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

AMEN... (none / 0)

this is not good.  My husband hipped me up to the article, stating see this is why I am not going to vote for her.  Why she would have herself surrounded by these righties is beyond me?  This makes one highly suspect of who she REALLY is.


"I want my voice to be read"
by icebergslim on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 02:53:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: AMEN... (none / 0)

'Rightes'? you are crazy.


by bryandem on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 02:59:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

mary matalin and James carville (none / 0)

are part of the joe lieberman scooter libby crowd, and there's a hairs difference between them and the Clintons


McCain - a serial Opportunist, from marriage to policy positions
by TarHeel on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 03:04:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: mary matalin and James carville (none / 0)

Well, looks to me another irrational Hillary hater. No need to debate you further.


by bryandem on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 03:08:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

bill clinton campaigned in CT (none / 0)

for Lieberman.  Neither one could drive 14 miles to CT to campaign for lamont.

How is that a "hater" statement?


McCain - a serial Opportunist, from marriage to policy positions
by TarHeel on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 04:28:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: bill clinton campaigned in CT (3.00 / 1)

It is so because it is an obfuscation.  Hillary Clinton AND Bill Clinton are the biggest fundraisers for the Democratic party,  BY FAR.  No other draw came even close, they are #1 and #2 when it comes to bringing in money for Democratic candidates.   Now they are "righties"?   You know, some of you here should really be ashamed of yourselves for these outright ridiculous and childish statements.

http://www.boston.com/news/local/connect icut/articles/2006/08/23/lamont_to_meet_ friday_in_ny_with_hillary_clinton/

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articl es/2006/08/10/clinton_reiterates_pledge_ to_back_lamont/

http://wcbstv.com/topstories/local_story _237143142.html

http://www.dkosopedia.com/wiki/Hillary_R odham_Clinton

"She reportedly helped candidates raise over $21 million in the 2005-2006 election cycle. Clinton has always been adamant about supporting her party. When the Joe Lieberman vs. Ned Lamont race heated up, Hillary said that she would support the candidate who won the primary - and she did... even though she had been friends with Leiberman. She sent Lamont one of her campaign advisors, in addition to meeting with him personally and giving him a donation of $5,000. (This is the most she was allowed to give according to the rules.) In the 2006 election cycle, Senator Clinton donated $2.35 million to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, $250,000 to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and $550,000 to the New York State Democratic Party. HILLPAC also contributed over $590,000 directly to Democratic candidates. By October 14th Hillary had raised $49 million for her own senate race. She used much of her campaign cash flying to visit candidates in other states."

http://www.alternet.org/columnists/story 40486

Here is President Clinton from the International Aids Conference in Toronto, on ABC News, responding to Lieberman blaming his loss on liberals in the Party purging those with strong national security credentials:

"Well, if I were Joe and I was running as an independent, that's what I'd say, too. But that's not quite right. That is, there were almost no Democrats who agreed with his position, which was, 'I want to attack Iraq whether or not they have weapons of mass destruction.' His position is the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld position, which was, 'Does it matter if they have weapons? None of this matters. ... This is a big, important priority, and 9/11 gives us the way of attacking and deposing Saddam.'"

Clinton also disputed Lieberman's claim that a vote for Lamont was a vote against the country's security.


by georgep on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 05:24:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New NH poll: (none / 0)

There was a pretty big deal surrounding the team Edwards surrounded himself with.  Not very progressive people, to the contrary.  I think it was Matt Stoller with a frontpager recently who showed some of that background.

And let's not even talk about Robert Gibbs, the creator of the worst smear campaign against a Democrat ever conducted by a Democrat, a slimeball extraordinaire.  And, this Rovian character (his ad had Dean morphing slowly into Osama Bin Ladin) is Obama's spokesman?      


by georgep on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 05:10:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New NH poll: (none / 0)

George that's a pretty lame comeback in terms of Edwards. You're much better than that.

As far as the people Edwards surrounded himself with, you're referring to the foreign policy people that Stoller said Edwards is looking to when in fact he isn't looking to them at all and they aren't even remotely affiliated with his campaign?

Ok, so we can forget about that one. Now let's look at who Edwards REALLY surrounds himself with. Who's his campaign manager? David Bonior, one of the most progressive voices we've had in the house and not just a friend of labor, but someone who could proudly call himself part of the labor movement.

And you notice that I didn't attack anything about HRC's foreign policy positions or advisors. I'm talking domestic issues here. I stated that I'd feel better about her candidacy if Mark Penn, one of, if not the most trusted advisor in her campaign, was not a union buster.

But instead of addressing this you throw back at me some unsubstantiated charges against Edwards to make it look like "they're all dirty". Ok, that's one way to address it, but perhaps you could address the substance of the criticism too. Do you think it's Ok that HRC's top advisor is advising a very large company on how avoid unionization of their 17,000 employees? Do you think such a person really shares our core Democratic and Progressive values? Do you think such a person might influence HRC's campaign in such a way so as to reflect corporate values that he upholds rather than the public values and worker values that are the foundation of the modern Democratic Party?

Doesn't it bother you a little bit that he's doing this?


by adamterando on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 11:13:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New NH poll: (none / 0)

New Hampshire poll numbers dont matter.  After John Kerry won in Iowa, New Hampshire voters followed like sheep and voted for Kerry.  Dean had a 30 point lead on Kerry before Iowans voted.


by vamonticello on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 03:27:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Score another one (none / 0)

For Team Clinton.


by dpANDREWS on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 01:56:50 PM EST

Re: New NH poll: huge post-debate bounce for Hilla (none / 0)

She did extremely well in the debate. Television viewers were able to see the real Clinton not the caricature of the far right wing/far left wing haters.


BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog
by robliberal on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 01:59:13 PM EST

If you read the last couple of paragraphs (none / 0)

there are 2 points burried in the survey.

1. The media reinforced the perception she 'won'

2.  as her perceived "inevitability" increases so does her poll numbers.

NOTE: this is not my editorializing this is in the last 2-3 paragraphs


McCain - a serial Opportunist, from marriage to policy positions
by TarHeel on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 02:32:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Spin (none / 0)

...The media reinforced the perception she 'won'...

It depends on who you ask:
That is not how the MSM media is taking it this morning. They clearly are giving it to Edwards...

543,895 votes
by Michael Bersin on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 02:45:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Spin (none / 0)

 Good catch.  Just yesterday the media was all buttery about Edwards, made him out to be  the winner of the debate,  according to Tarheel.   What happened to that theme?  


by georgep on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 02:51:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Most pundits (none / 0)

including people who hate her like Huffington gave the win to Hillary


McCain - a serial Opportunist, from marriage to policy positions
by TarHeel on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 03:05:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Most pundits (none / 0)

....including people who hate her like Huffington gave the win to Hillary....

That must explain the poll, eh? That's a whole lot of statistical hate.
543,895 votes
by Michael Bersin on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 04:03:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If you read the last couple of paragraphs (none / 0)

Well, yes, but of the people who (a) watched the debate but (b) didn't follow the media coverage of the debate, 47% thought she won.  Only 11% of that same group thought that Obama won, and only 6% of that same group thought Edwards won.  That shows that even people who were unaware of any media perception at the time this poll was taken found her the winner by a huge margin.


Jim Martin for Senate!
by markjay on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 02:55:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If you read the last couple of paragraphs (none / 0)

Don't try to use logic, markay.  They probably STILL followed the media spin, just did not want to admit it to the pollsters for some undefined reason Tarheel probably will tell you more about.   :-)


by georgep on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 05:27:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New NH poll: huge post-debate (none / 0)

Can we all be a bit humble? Instead of accusing all democrats in NH are GOP like, maybe you should look into the mirror and question yourself how far away you are from the Green?


by bryandem on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 02:04:15 PM EST

Re: New NH poll: huge post-debate (none / 0)

You have no credibility to claim you are a 'progressive' just as you have no credibility to claim Hillary is a 'neo-liberal'.

You can go back to Green.


by bryandem on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 02:28:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This is a great answer (none / 0)

Some people here mistakenly believe that they are somewhere close to the mainstream. Isolationism and denying the war on terror is nowhere near mainstream positions, but belong on the outer left fringe. There is nothing wrong with being on the fringe, of course, but don't expect mainstream Democrats to be there if they are to win general elections.


The history of the left is a history of purists betraying the progressive movement so that they can feel good about their righteous selves.
by Populism2008 on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 03:09:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This is a great answer (none / 0)

What is your definition of populism?


by adamterando on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 11:15:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

who the fuck is franklinpierce?` (none / 0)

here comes the inevitability people agin, why does Mark Penn and his followers make such a big deal over polls, Hillary is still ahead among low info voters and those not paying much attention, cnn is probably a bit off, but what relaly is starting to show is that Obama is the best general elction  candidate because of his appeal to indies, Hillary "partisons" can try to dispute this all they want but as mainstream dems start paying attention Obama is going topick up some votes ampong people who care whether we actually win in 2008 instead of whether we nominate the most "experienced" or "best qualified".


Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 02:10:08 PM EST

Re: who the fuck is franklinpierce?` (none / 0)

Desperate and laughable.


by bryandem on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 02:19:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: who the fuck is franklinpierce?` (none / 0)

I hope you'll be able to wake up and smell the coffee, but I'm not holding my breath for Hillary haters, left or right.


by bryandem on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 02:29:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

what is desperateand laughable (none / 0)

is what the "Hillary inevitability team" is trying to do on the netroots. Instead of talking issues or responding to story's about Penn, they constantly harp on polls that are not very important, including the one Obama leads as a reason for others to join the bandwagon. They ignore or spin polls or focus groups that don't fit thier talking points.


Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 02:32:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: what is desperateand laughable (none / 0)

There's no reason to talk about issues or her positions to irrationl diehard Hillary haters from the left just as there's no reason to debate with right wingers on Hillary.

Hillary supporters talk about issues/her positions to undecided, those who have doubt about her candidacy but not in an irrational way.

To all Hillary haters, whether they are from the left or right, the only way they will listen is to beat them, and beat them multiple times.


by bryandem on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 02:41:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: what is desperateand laughable (none / 0)

what is desperateand laughable is what the "Hillary inevitability team" is trying to do on the netroots.

Oh you mean like speak our minds? I didn't realize there was a ban on having honest opinions and countering the misinformation about whom we think will be the best presidential candidate.

Instead of talking issues or responding to story's about Penn

Oh yes, let's talk about Mark Penn, a pollster for the Hillary campaign who worked in different capacities during his career: once even as an executive at Eli Lilly. God, I'm frightened. That must mean anything he's ever done in his life Hillary must have supported. Yeah sure.

they constantly harp on polls that are not very important, including the one Obama leads as a reason for others to join the bandwagon.

Oh okay, so the ones that show Hillary in the lead, that is, most and let me not confuse you: the overwhelming majority of polls that show Hillary leading are not very important but the few that show statistically significant differences from the majority of studies are?

They ignore or spin polls...

Generally, one should think for himself or herself and not just paraphrase and repeat the findings of x blogger who has anonymous credentials but who can write a scathing criticism of anyone that coincidentally falls apart underneath even the most cursory fact check.

... or focus groups that don't fit thier talking points.

If voters for Hillary are notorious for ignoring focus groups, then I say Amen. Once again, people should be able to make their own minds. As for public sentiment, that remains to be seen. For now, it looks like Hillary's on her way to win the nomination.


While I could sit in church and pray all I want, I wouldn't be fulfilling God's will unless I went out and did the Lord's work ~ Barack Obama
by bowiegeek on Wed Jun 06, 2007 at 07:14:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: who the fuck is franklinpierce?` (3.00 / 1)

You have gone on record to state that you would leave the Democratic party if Clinton becomes the nominee.  As such your "love" is conditional and subject to instant removal if the right conditions aren't met.   Therefore, some of the comments have to be taken with a grain of salt.

For the record, I am a lifelong Democrat who has fought for Democratic wins and Democratic issues for almost 3 decades.  Nothing will change that, regardless of who our candidate will be for 2008.  I hope it will be Clinton (for reasons I already stated,) but if not I will be fighting like crazy for Obama, Edwards, Richardson, or whoever we decide on.  


by georgep on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 02:49:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: who the fuck is franklinpierce?` (none / 0)

Independents are NOT really that well informed as of yet.   They are much more low-info than Democrats, who are looking at the candidates much closer at this point.  If Obama can hold onto Democratic-leaning Independents as they become more "high-info" then you are looking at something interesting.  

This polling firm is well respected, so your heaves are misplaced.  Get over it.  Clinton's style is like made for New Hampshire retail politics.   Obama's is really not.  


by georgep on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 02:42:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New NH poll: huge post-debate (none / 0)

It's becoming apparent all Hillary has is her "inevitability"  that's why her people fight so hard when a poll like CNN's come out. Why does Penn care so much about it, you don't hear other candidates spokesmen and supporters being so  "poll driven" this far out.  Stop it team Hillary! when you guys post why she would be the best president I can respect that, but stop the
"everyone loves her so you should too" stuff it
isn't going to work.
Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 02:15:01 PM EST

Re: New NH poll: huge post-debate bounce (none / 0)

This isn't surprising.  I'm for Obama but I can recognize that Hillary did extremely well.  She was both commanding and almost likeable.  Good.  I'm all for potential candidates getting better.

There's still a long way to the primaries, a lot more debates, and a lot of other factors which are going to play into this.  But if there's a lesson to be learned from this one, I hope it's that it is a lot wiser to hold the party together than to try to attack it from within like Edwards did.  That old style of politics ain't cutting it anymore. It may be what the media wants, but clearly the voters don't.  


by dougdilg on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 02:23:06 PM EST

Re: New NH poll: huge post-debate bounce (none / 0)

Dissent is old politics? Tell that to the Senate and House.  I guess you're pretty happy they followed the lead of nice guy Harry instead of that boat-rocker Feingold.


"If [John Edwards] seems too good to be true, well, so be it; instead, you can pick a candidate who's bad enough to be plausible." - Daily Kos user Drew
by Junior Bug on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 03:07:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New NH poll: huge post-debate bounce (3.00 / 1)

To put things in perspective:

ARG tracking poll on Jan. 11, 2004 FOR  NH primary:

Dean 35
Clark 20
Kerry 10

The Primary was held Jan. 27th and the IA caucus was held on Jan. 19th

Final results were about a 10 pt+ win for Kerry over Dean


by BDM on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 04:14:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

uhhh .. if you really are for Obama (none / 0)

you'd better realize that the only way  he catches Hillary is if he contrasts his position clearly with Hillary.

As I remember, Edwards did not want Hillary to continue to tell all democratic voters all the candidates are the same.

contrast is not attacking, so far the only attacks were the back and forth between Hillary and Obama on David Geffen..


McCain - a serial Opportunist, from marriage to policy positions
by TarHeel on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 04:31:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: uhhh .. if you really are for Obama (none / 0)

Is there really anyone who doesn't know Hillary voted for the war and Obama was against it?  Hasn't that contrast been made abundantly clear?  The contrast Edwards brought up was not a contrast at all, he was against the supplemental, they voted against it.  And so he tried to create a contrast where there was none, which is called an attack.  It's kind of like his attempt to create a contrast between apologizing and not apologizing when both of them did not read the report and voted the same way.  

The real difference between the candidates is vision, not policy.  The debates with the one minute answers are overwhelmingly issue-oriented.  The people who respond to Obama do so after hearing him speak at length or reading his book.  He doesn't need to win every debate or overtake Hillary this week.  I think Edwards would be better served if he would realize this and get back to Two Americas instead of the petty sniping he's taken up.


by dougdilg on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 05:43:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: uhhh .. if you really are for Obama (none / 0)

People who are buying the line that Obama's the anti-war candidate need to know that he's supported the war with his votes at every opportunity before he voted against the capitulation bill.  Everyone knows Edwards voted for the war four years ago.  Now everyone needs to know Obama has voted for it since.


"If [John Edwards] seems too good to be true, well, so be it; instead, you can pick a candidate who's bad enough to be plausible." - Daily Kos user Drew
by Junior Bug on Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 10:34:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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